Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →71.0%
Newcastle
16.7%
Draw
12.3%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.86
Newcastle
vs
1.19
Luton
Markets
BTTS66.5%
Over 0.597.4%
Over 1.592.0%
Over 2.576.9%
Over 3.557.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.5%
3-1
8.1%
2-0
7.1%
3-0
6.8%
1-1
6.8%
4-1
5.8%
2-2
5.1%
4-0
4.9%
3-2
4.8%
1-0
4.2%
1-2
3.5%
4-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).