Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →7.5%
Estrela
17.0%
Draw
75.5%
Porto
Expected Goals (xG)
0.46
Estrela
vs
2.06
Porto
Markets
BTTS32.1%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.571.5%
Over 2.546.3%
Over 3.524.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
17.0%
0-1
16.8%
0-3
11.7%
1-2
7.9%
0-0
7.7%
1-1
7.3%
0-4
6.0%
1-3
5.4%
1-0
4.0%
1-4
2.8%
0-5
2.5%
2-2
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).