Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.6%
Nacional
26.9%
Draw
20.4%
Rio Ave
Expected Goals (xG)
1.60
Nacional
vs
0.91
Rio Ave
Markets
BTTS48.5%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.572.3%
Over 2.545.7%
Over 3.524.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.8%
1-0
12.1%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
6.5%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.4%
3-1
5.0%
2-2
4.3%
0-2
3.4%
3-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).