Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.3%
Nacional
28.5%
Draw
26.2%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40
Nacional
vs
1.01
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS48.7%
Over 0.590.2%
Over 1.570.2%
Over 2.543.3%
Over 3.522.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-0
11.8%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.8%
0-1
8.3%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.6%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
4.2%
3-0
4.1%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).