Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.0%
Chesterfield
20.2%
Draw
16.8%
Crawley Town
Expected Goals (xG)
1.98
Chesterfield
vs
0.90
Crawley Town
Markets
BTTS50.8%
Over 0.594.8%
Over 1.577.8%
Over 2.555.0%
Over 3.532.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
11.5%
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.6%
3-0
7.3%
3-1
6.5%
0-1
5.5%
0-0
5.2%
1-2
4.5%
2-2
4.5%
4-0
3.6%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).