Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.6%
Milan
21.6%
Draw
14.8%
Fiorentina
Expected Goals (xG)
1.85
Milan
vs
0.75
Fiorentina
Markets
BTTS44.5%
Over 0.592.8%
Over 1.573.2%
Over 2.548.3%
Over 3.526.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.8%
2-0
12.6%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
7.8%
0-0
7.2%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
1-2
3.9%
4-0
3.6%
2-2
3.6%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).