Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →72.3%
Derby
18.9%
Draw
8.8%
Sheffield Weds
Expected Goals (xG)
2.20
Derby
vs
0.64
Sheffield Weds
Markets
BTTS42.9%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.578.3%
Over 2.554.0%
Over 3.531.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.1%
1-0
12.1%
3-0
10.3%
2-1
9.1%
1-1
9.0%
3-1
6.6%
0-0
6.5%
4-0
5.7%
4-1
3.6%
0-1
3.1%
2-2
2.9%
1-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).