Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.1%
Luton
26.4%
Draw
15.5%
Sheffield Weds
Expected Goals (xG)
1.63
Luton
vs
0.73
Sheffield Weds
Markets
BTTS42.5%
Over 0.589.6%
Over 1.569.2%
Over 2.541.9%
Over 3.521.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.5%
2-0
12.6%
1-1
12.2%
0-0
10.4%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
6.8%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
5.0%
1-2
4.1%
2-2
3.3%
4-0
2.8%
0-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).