Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →22.4%
Spal
28.7%
Draw
48.9%
Monza
Expected Goals (xG)
0.93
Spal
vs
1.48
Monza
Markets
BTTS47.9%
Over 0.589.8%
Over 1.570.6%
Over 2.543.3%
Over 3.522.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
0-1
12.1%
0-0
10.2%
0-2
9.9%
1-2
9.2%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
4.9%
1-3
4.5%
2-2
4.2%
2-0
3.9%
2-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).