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17 Sept 2023 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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63.2%
Lyon
22.7%
Draw
14.1%
Le Havre

Expected Goals (xG)

1.71

Lyon

vs
0.65

Le Havre

Markets

BTTS38.9%
Over 0.590.8%
Over 1.567.9%
Over 2.541.9%
Over 3.521.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
16.4%
2-0
13.8%
1-1
10.2%
0-0
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
3-0
7.8%
0-1
6.4%
3-1
5.1%
1-2
3.4%
4-0
3.3%
2-2
2.9%
4-1
2.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).