Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →85.1%
Porto
11.8%
Draw
3.0%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
2.64
Porto
vs
0.37
Estrela
Markets
BTTS29.3%
Over 0.594.7%
Over 1.580.7%
Over 2.558.0%
Over 3.535.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.1%
3-0
15.1%
1-0
12.6%
4-0
10.0%
2-1
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
0-0
5.3%
5-0
5.3%
1-1
5.2%
4-1
3.7%
5-1
2.0%
0-1
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).