Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.7%
Union Berlin
31.8%
Draw
22.5%
St Pauli
Expected Goals (xG)
1.22
Union Berlin
vs
0.77
St Pauli
Markets
BTTS39.0%
Over 0.585.4%
Over 1.560.3%
Over 2.532.2%
Over 3.514.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.6%
0-0
14.6%
1-1
13.8%
2-0
10.1%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
5.0%
3-0
4.1%
0-2
4.1%
3-1
3.2%
2-2
3.0%
1-3
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).