Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.8%
Arsenal
27.6%
Draw
21.6%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66
Arsenal
vs
1.02
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS53.3%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.576.3%
Over 2.550.1%
Over 3.528.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
9.5%
0-0
8.5%
1-2
5.9%
0-1
5.4%
3-1
5.3%
3-0
5.2%
2-2
4.9%
0-2
3.6%
3-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).