Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.2%
Southampton
13.8%
Draw
6.0%
Sheffield Weds
Expected Goals (xG)
2.72
Southampton
vs
0.66
Sheffield Weds
Markets
BTTS45.4%
Over 0.596.1%
Over 1.585.6%
Over 2.565.6%
Over 3.543.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.6%
3-0
11.5%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
8.3%
4-0
7.8%
3-1
7.5%
1-1
6.6%
4-1
5.1%
5-0
4.3%
0-0
3.9%
5-1
2.8%
2-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).