Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.6%
Valladolid
25.0%
Draw
16.4%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.57
Valladolid
vs
0.69
Lugo
Markets
BTTS39.2%
Over 0.589.6%
Over 1.565.7%
Over 2.539.1%
Over 3.519.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.6%
2-0
12.9%
1-1
11.2%
0-0
10.4%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.3%
3-0
6.7%
3-1
4.6%
1-2
3.9%
2-2
3.0%
4-0
2.6%
0-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).