Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.5%
Tondela
28.2%
Draw
39.3%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.01
Tondela
vs
1.15
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS42.8%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.562.9%
Over 2.536.6%
Over 3.517.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.8%
1-1
12.8%
1-0
12.3%
0-0
11.0%
1-2
7.7%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.9%
2-2
3.9%
1-3
2.9%
0-3
2.9%
3-1
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).