Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.9%
Manchester City
24.7%
Draw
22.3%
Man United
Expected Goals (xG)
1.95
Manchester City
vs
1.22
Man United
Markets
BTTS61.9%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.583.9%
Over 2.561.5%
Over 3.539.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.0%
1-0
6.8%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
5.6%
3-0
5.2%
3-2
3.9%
0-1
3.7%
0-2
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).