Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →23.5%
Spezia
25.2%
Draw
51.3%
Fiorentina
Expected Goals (xG)
0.95
Spezia
vs
1.55
Fiorentina
Markets
BTTS48.2%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.571.1%
Over 2.545.6%
Over 3.524.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
12.9%
1-1
11.9%
0-2
9.8%
1-2
9.4%
1-0
8.0%
0-0
8.0%
2-1
5.8%
0-3
5.1%
1-3
4.8%
2-2
4.5%
2-0
3.7%
2-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).