Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.3%
Fleetwood Town
25.4%
Draw
36.4%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.23
Fleetwood Town
vs
1.19
Swindon
Markets
BTTS48.1%
Over 0.592.2%
Over 1.568.4%
Over 2.543.5%
Over 3.522.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.0%
1-1
11.9%
0-1
11.7%
2-1
8.0%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
4.8%
3-1
3.3%
1-3
3.1%
3-0
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).