Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →12.8%
Setubal
20.5%
Draw
66.6%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.65
Setubal
vs
1.86
Benfica
Markets
BTTS40.1%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.571.1%
Over 2.545.9%
Over 3.524.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.5%
0-2
14.0%
1-1
9.4%
1-2
9.2%
0-3
8.7%
0-0
7.7%
1-0
5.7%
1-3
5.7%
0-4
4.0%
2-1
3.2%
2-2
3.0%
1-4
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).