Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.6%
Guimaraes
21.8%
Draw
15.6%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.77
Guimaraes
vs
0.74
Chaves
Markets
BTTS42.9%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.571.1%
Over 2.546.0%
Over 3.524.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.8%
2-0
12.8%
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
7.6%
3-0
7.5%
0-1
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
1-2
3.9%
2-2
3.5%
4-0
3.3%
4-1
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).