Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.9%
Maritimo
24.6%
Draw
35.5%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Maritimo
vs
1.31
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS54.6%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.574.9%
Over 2.551.0%
Over 3.529.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.6%
1-0
9.8%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.0%
2-0
6.5%
0-0
6.1%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
5.6%
3-1
4.0%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).