⚽ FootballData
3 – 5
AHT: 12CSV

29 Dec 2024 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

View all models →
19.5%
Cheltenham
21.9%
Draw
58.7%
Notts County

Expected Goals (xG)

0.93

Cheltenham

vs
1.81

Notts County

Markets

BTTS50.1%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.575.4%
Over 2.551.6%
Over 3.529.5%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
12.2%
0-2
10.6%
1-1
10.4%
1-2
9.8%
1-0
6.5%
0-3
6.4%
0-0
6.0%
1-3
5.9%
2-1
5.0%
2-2
4.6%
0-4
2.9%
2-0
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).