Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.9%
Middlesbrough
26.5%
Draw
20.6%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.62
Middlesbrough
vs
0.92
Watford
Markets
BTTS49.2%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.573.0%
Over 2.546.7%
Over 3.525.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.6%
1-0
11.9%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
6.4%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.4%
3-1
5.1%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.4%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).