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22 Apr 2023 · 13:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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35.4%
Parma
32.5%
Draw
32.1%
Cagliari

Expected Goals (xG)

1.09

Parma

vs
1.02

Cagliari

Markets

BTTS43.8%
Over 0.586.6%
Over 1.563.7%
Over 2.535.3%
Over 3.516.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.4%
1-0
11.8%
0-1
11.1%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
3.8%
3-1
2.7%
3-0
2.6%
1-3
2.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).