Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.0%
Burgos
23.7%
Draw
13.3%
Cartagena
Expected Goals (xG)
1.64
Burgos
vs
0.60
Cartagena
Markets
BTTS36.2%
Over 0.589.5%
Over 1.565.4%
Over 2.538.8%
Over 3.518.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.6%
2-0
14.4%
0-0
10.5%
1-1
10.3%
2-1
8.6%
3-0
7.9%
0-1
6.4%
3-1
4.7%
4-0
3.2%
1-2
3.1%
2-2
2.6%
4-1
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).