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07 Apr 2024 · 11:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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24.1%
Frosinone
23.9%
Draw
52.0%
Bologna

Expected Goals (xG)

1.06

Frosinone

vs
1.67

Bologna

Markets

BTTS52.8%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.575.5%
Over 2.551.4%
Over 3.529.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.3%
0-1
11.1%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
9.1%
1-0
7.1%
0-0
6.3%
2-1
6.1%
1-3
5.4%
0-3
5.1%
2-2
5.1%
2-0
3.6%
2-3
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).