Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.8%
Milton Keynes Dons
25.4%
Draw
53.7%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.74
Milton Keynes Dons
vs
1.40
Derby
Markets
BTTS38.5%
Over 0.589.3%
Over 1.562.2%
Over 2.536.2%
Over 3.517.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.4%
0-2
11.5%
1-1
11.2%
0-0
10.7%
1-0
9.7%
1-2
8.5%
0-3
5.4%
2-1
4.5%
1-3
4.0%
2-0
3.2%
2-2
3.2%
0-4
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).