Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.5%
Castellon
21.4%
Draw
20.1%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.97
Castellon
vs
1.06
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS56.1%
Over 0.595.3%
Over 1.580.4%
Over 2.558.3%
Over 3.535.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.6%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
6.5%
3-0
6.1%
1-2
5.4%
2-2
5.3%
0-1
5.2%
0-0
4.7%
3-2
3.5%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).