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AHT: 02CSV

28 Nov 2023 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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20.0%
Cambridge
21.6%
Draw
58.5%
Lincoln

Expected Goals (xG)

0.89

Cambridge

vs
1.75

Lincoln

Markets

BTTS47.9%
Over 0.593.8%
Over 1.573.1%
Over 2.549.2%
Over 3.527.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
13.4%
0-2
10.9%
1-1
10.2%
1-2
9.7%
1-0
7.3%
0-3
6.3%
0-0
6.2%
1-3
5.7%
2-1
5.0%
2-2
4.3%
2-0
2.9%
0-4
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).