Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →19.5%
Luton
21.9%
Draw
58.6%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.28
Luton
vs
2.27
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS65.9%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.588.1%
Over 2.568.9%
Over 3.547.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.5%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.4%
1-3
7.2%
2-2
6.1%
0-3
5.6%
0-1
5.3%
2-1
5.3%
2-3
4.6%
1-4
4.1%
0-0
4.0%
0-4
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).