Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.4%
Real Madrid
23.0%
Draw
31.7%
Barcelona
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Real Madrid
vs
1.50
Barcelona
Markets
BTTS65.6%
Over 0.596.2%
Over 1.584.8%
Over 2.564.8%
Over 3.542.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
6.8%
1-0
6.3%
2-0
6.0%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
5.1%
3-2
4.1%
0-2
4.0%
0-0
3.8%
1-3
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).