Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →67.7%
Swindon
18.7%
Draw
13.6%
Shrewsbury
Expected Goals (xG)
2.09
Swindon
vs
0.80
Shrewsbury
Markets
BTTS47.8%
Over 0.594.8%
Over 1.578.0%
Over 2.555.2%
Over 3.532.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.2%
1-0
12.0%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
8.9%
3-0
8.5%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
5.2%
0-1
4.8%
4-0
4.4%
2-2
3.9%
1-2
3.7%
4-1
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).