Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.9%
Tondela
31.5%
Draw
26.5%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Tondela
vs
0.88
Estrela
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.586.4%
Over 1.561.6%
Over 2.533.8%
Over 3.515.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.3%
1-1
14.1%
0-0
13.6%
0-1
10.4%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
4.9%
3-0
3.5%
2-2
3.4%
3-1
3.1%
1-3
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).