Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.3%
Arouca
21.8%
Draw
21.9%
Pacos Ferreira
Expected Goals (xG)
1.84
Arouca
vs
1.05
Pacos Ferreira
Markets
BTTS54.2%
Over 0.594.9%
Over 1.577.9%
Over 2.555.1%
Over 3.532.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
10.7%
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.4%
0-1
6.3%
3-1
6.1%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.6%
2-2
5.2%
0-0
5.1%
3-2
3.2%
0-2
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).