Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.4%
Casa Pia
28.7%
Draw
26.9%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Casa Pia
vs
1.02
Alverca
Markets
BTTS48.6%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.570.0%
Over 2.543.0%
Over 3.522.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-0
11.7%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.7%
0-1
8.4%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
4.7%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
4.1%
3-0
4.0%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).