⚽ FootballData
1 – 3
AHT: 11CSV

30 Jan 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

View all models →
38.8%
Brescia
31.8%
Draw
29.4%
Livorno

Expected Goals (xG)

1.18

Brescia

vs
0.99

Livorno

Markets

BTTS45.0%
Over 0.587.3%
Over 1.565.2%
Over 2.537.0%
Over 3.517.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.7%
1-0
12.1%
0-1
10.0%
2-0
7.9%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
3.9%
3-0
3.1%
3-1
3.1%
1-3
2.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).