Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.9%
Burnley
24.1%
Draw
15.9%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.97
Burnley
vs
0.94
Watford
Markets
BTTS53.7%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.580.0%
Over 2.555.5%
Over 3.533.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.5%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.4%
3-0
6.9%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
4.7%
2-2
4.7%
0-1
3.7%
4-0
3.4%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).