Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →5.1%
Southampton
14.1%
Draw
80.8%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
0.61
Southampton
vs
2.72
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS43.6%
Over 0.595.6%
Over 1.585.4%
Over 2.564.8%
Over 3.542.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.2%
0-3
12.0%
0-1
8.9%
0-4
8.2%
1-2
8.1%
1-3
7.3%
1-1
6.8%
1-4
5.0%
0-5
4.4%
0-0
4.4%
1-5
2.7%
2-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).