Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.6%
Nacional
22.1%
Draw
24.3%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.81
Nacional
vs
1.14
Arouca
Markets
BTTS56.4%
Over 0.595.3%
Over 1.578.9%
Over 2.556.6%
Over 3.534.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.3%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.6%
0-1
6.4%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
5.9%
2-2
5.6%
3-0
5.2%
0-0
4.7%
0-2
3.4%
3-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).