Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →21.5%
Newport County
21.0%
Draw
57.5%
Chesterfield
Expected Goals (xG)
1.10
Newport County
vs
1.95
Chesterfield
Markets
BTTS56.8%
Over 0.595.7%
Over 1.580.4%
Over 2.558.7%
Over 3.536.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
9.9%
1-1
9.8%
0-1
9.7%
0-2
9.0%
1-3
6.4%
0-3
5.8%
1-0
5.6%
2-1
5.6%
2-2
5.4%
0-0
4.3%
2-3
3.5%
1-4
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).