Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.4%
Coventry
22.5%
Draw
16.1%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
2.01
Coventry
vs
0.94
Watford
Markets
BTTS53.8%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.580.3%
Over 2.556.8%
Over 3.534.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.7%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.6%
3-0
7.1%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.0%
2-2
4.7%
1-2
4.7%
0-1
4.1%
4-0
3.6%
4-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).