Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.1%
Hertford Town
19.7%
Draw
29.2%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
2.25
Hertford Town
vs
1.68
Swindon
Markets
BTTS72.6%
Over 0.598.3%
Over 1.590.1%
Over 2.575.2%
Over 3.555.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.3%
1-1
7.2%
2-2
7.0%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
6.2%
3-2
5.3%
2-0
5.0%
1-0
4.6%
2-3
3.9%
3-0
3.7%
0-1
3.5%
4-1
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).