Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.0%
Reading
22.7%
Draw
28.3%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.62
Reading
vs
1.16
Luton
Markets
BTTS54.0%
Over 0.594.7%
Over 1.575.5%
Over 2.552.4%
Over 3.530.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
11.1%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.4%
0-1
8.2%
2-0
8.2%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
5.5%
0-0
5.3%
3-1
5.1%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
4.2%
3-2
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).