Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.6%
Port Vale
28.5%
Draw
30.9%
Exeter
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Port Vale
vs
0.96
Exeter
Markets
BTTS41.5%
Over 0.588.4%
Over 1.561.6%
Over 2.535.2%
Over 3.516.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.6%
1-1
12.8%
0-1
12.2%
0-0
11.6%
2-0
8.0%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
3.7%
3-0
3.1%
3-1
2.9%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).