Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.7%
Benfica
23.9%
Draw
11.4%
Famalicao
Expected Goals (xG)
1.76
Benfica
vs
0.60
Famalicao
Markets
BTTS38.2%
Over 0.589.8%
Over 1.569.1%
Over 2.542.1%
Over 3.521.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.8%
2-0
14.6%
1-1
10.7%
0-0
10.2%
2-1
8.8%
3-0
8.6%
3-1
5.2%
0-1
4.9%
4-0
3.8%
1-2
3.0%
2-2
2.6%
4-1
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).