Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.8%
Ponferradina
23.5%
Draw
19.7%
Cartagena
Expected Goals (xG)
1.72
Ponferradina
vs
0.91
Cartagena
Markets
BTTS48.9%
Over 0.592.9%
Over 1.573.7%
Over 2.548.9%
Over 3.527.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.5%
1-1
11.1%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
7.1%
0-1
6.6%
3-0
6.2%
3-1
5.6%
1-2
5.1%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.0%
4-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).