Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.5%
Bristol City
28.6%
Draw
23.9%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
Bristol City
vs
0.96
Luton
Markets
BTTS48.4%
Over 0.590.0%
Over 1.570.6%
Over 2.543.5%
Over 3.522.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
10.0%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.6%
3-1
4.4%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
4.1%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).