Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.2%
Arouca
25.0%
Draw
27.8%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.76
Arouca
vs
1.31
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS61.1%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.581.8%
Over 2.559.0%
Over 3.536.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.4%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.5%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
5.3%
3-0
4.2%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).