Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.8%
Sp Gijon
21.5%
Draw
11.6%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.81
Sp Gijon
vs
0.59
Lugo
Markets
BTTS37.2%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.569.0%
Over 2.543.0%
Over 3.522.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.5%
2-0
14.8%
1-1
9.6%
0-0
9.0%
3-0
8.9%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.3%
4-0
4.0%
1-2
2.9%
2-2
2.6%
4-1
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).